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Screen Shot 2016-01-18 at 10.35.52 PMWow!! keep in mind that increasing demise price among middle-aged non-Hispanic whites? it is about ladies in the south (and, to an inferior extent, feamales in the midwest). Amazing exactly what can be learned simply by slicing data.

We don’t have any explanations because of this. As I informed a reporter last week, in my opinion inside unit of work: we attempt to find out what’s taking place, and I’ll let people describe the reason why.

I’m sure you can come up with lots of stories on your own, though. When performing your reverse causal inference, remember that people move, and, as we’ve discussed before, the cohorts are changing. 45-54-year-olds in 1999 aren’t the same people as 45-54-year-olds in 2013. We adjust for changing age distributions (ya gotta do that) but we’re still talking about different cohorts.

Here’s exactly how our paper begins:

In a current article in PNAS, Case and Deaton show a figure illustrating “a marked rise in the all-cause mortality of middle-aged white non-Hispanic both women and men in america between 1999 and 2013.” The writers declare that their particular figures “are maybe not age-adjusted in the 10-y 45-54 age-group.” They calculated the death rate every year by dividing the total number of deaths when it comes to age-group because of the population of age bracket.

Screen Shot 2016-01-18 at 10.41.33 PMWe suspected an aggregation prejudice and examined whether a lot of the increase in aggregate death prices for this generation could possibly be as a result of switching structure of 45–54 year old age group over the 1990 to 2013 period of time. If this had been the truth, the change within the group death price over time may not mirror a change in age-specific mortality rates. Modifying for age verified this suspicion. As opposed to Case and Deaton’s figure, we come across there's no longer a steady boost in mortality prices because of this generation. As an alternative there was a growing trend from 1999–2005 and a continuing trend thereafter. Additionally, stratifying age-adjusted death prices by intercourse reveals a marked enhance only for ladies and never men, contrary to the article’s headline.

For reasons uknown, the NYT ran an account on this the other day and didn’t age change, that has been a mistake. Nor performed they breakdown the information by region of the nation. Also bad. Much more folks read the NYT than read this web log as well as PPNAS.

Source: andrewgelman.com
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